Final report of ITS Center project:
Emissions Modeling
A Research Project Report
For the Center for ITS
Implementation Research
A U.S. DOT University
Transportation Center
EMISSIONS MODELING
Principal Investigator
Dr. Hesham Rakha
Virginia Tech Transportation
Institute
3500 Transportation Research Plaza (0536)
Blacksburg VA 24061
Phone: 540-231-1505
Fax: 540-231-1555
The contents of this report reflect the views
of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the
information presented herein. This
document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Department of
Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program, in the interest of
information exchange. The U.S.
Government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof
Emission Modeling
A final report for the
National ITS Implementation Center
Kyoungho Ahn[1]
Virginia Tech
Transportation Institute
7054 Haycock Rd
Falls Church, VA
22043
kahn@vt.edu
(703) 538-8447
Fax: (703) 538-8450
Hesham Rakha
Charles Via, Jr.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech
Transportation Institute
3500 Transportation
Research Plaza
Blacksburg, VA 24061–
0536
hrakha@vt.edu
(540) 231-1505
Fax: (540) 231-1555
Ihab El-Shawarby
Ain-Shams University,
Cairo, Egypt
Virginia Tech
Transportation Institute
3500 Transportation
Research Plaza
Blacksburg, VA 24061
(540) 231-1577
Fax: (540) 231-1555
This report consists of two separate papers, published from research completed with ITS Implementation Center funding.
The Effects of Route Choice
Decisions on Vehicle Energy Consumption and Emissions
ABSTRACT
The paper
presents the results of a field and simulation study that investigates the
impacts of route choice decisions on vehicle energy consumption and emissions. The
field study utilized various energy and emission models to estimate vehicle
fuel consumption and emissions with field-collected second-by-second
floating-car Global Positioning System data. The field study compares two
routes: a faster and longer highway route and a slower and shorter arterial
route. The study demonstrates that the faster highway route choice is not
always the best route from an environmental and energy consumption perspective.
Specifically, the study shows that significant improvements (savings of up to 23%,
63%, 71%, 45%, and 20% in fuel, HC, CO, NOx, and CO2
emissions, respectively) to energy and air quality can be achieved when
motorists utilize a slower arterial route although they incur an additional 17%
in travel time. The study also illustrates that a small portion of the entire
trip that involves high engine-load conditions has significant impacts on the
total emissions; demonstrating that by minimizing high-emitting driving
behavior, air quality can be significantly improved. The simulation study also demonstrated
that the emission-optimized traffic assignment can significantly improve fuel
consumption and emissions over the User Equilibrium and System Equilibrium assignments,
and User Equilibrium and System Equilibrium may not result in optimum HC, CO,
and NOx emissions. The study also demonstrates that various vehicle
types have different HC and CO emission-optimized traffic assignment
conditions. Emissions are significantly different among vehicle types; high-emitting
vehicles typically generate more emissions at low speeds and during acceleration
than normal vehicles, while low-emitting vehicles produce significantly low
emissions under the same conditions.
INTRODUCTION
The
paper investigates the energy and environmental impacts of route choice decisions
using in-field collected Global Positioning System (GPS) data and simulation results.
Traffic congestion has grown significantly in the past two decades. A recent
study found that the total hours of delay in the United States increased by 528%
(0.7 to 3.7 billion hours) from 1982 to 2003, and individual travelers
spend about three times as many extra delay hours (16 to 47 hours) than they
did twenty years ago. Furthermore, congestion affects more roads, trips, and
times of day in most U.S. metropolitan areas (Schrank and Lomax 2005).
Due to congestion, motorists face a difficult trip-planning
process when attempting to reduce delays and improve travel time reliability.
This decision-making process is based on the drivers’ urgency, experience, and
current information on travel time, trip distance, and other trip-related factors.
However, energy and environmental impacts are not typically utilized in drivers’
decision-making process.
Motorists typically choose routes that minimize their
travel cost (e.g., travel time). Therefore, drivers typically select longer
routes if it can save travel cost. However, the question that needs addressing
is whether taking a longer but faster route can result in energy and air
quality improvements. This study investigates the impacts of route choice
decisions on vehicle fuel consumption and emission rates using GPS data gathered
during the morning commute near a suburb in the Washington, DC metropolitan
area. The study analysis is further expanded by conducting a sensitivity
analysis using the INTEGRATION microscopic traffic simulation software.
The objectives of this study were twofold. First, the
study investigates the impact of two route choices on vehicle fuel consumption
and emission rates. Second, the study demonstrates the effectiveness of
utilizing User-Equilibrium (UE) and System Optimum (SO) traffic assignments for
environmental improvement and energy saving considerations.
OVERVIEW OF ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS OF TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
The
commonly used UE and SO traffic assignment models typically utilize minimum travel
time as a generalized cost to assign traffic flows over a network. However UE
and SO assignments are estimated based on travel time, the fuel consumption and
emissions of UE and SO conditions may not produce optimum energy and emission
rates. Several researchers have investigated traffic assignment methods using
environmental cost functions.
Tzeng and Chen (1993) developed the multi-objective
traffic assignment method. They formulated multi-objective functions using nonlinear
programming techniques and produced various solutions to emit low CO emissions.
By utilizing the eigenvector weighting method with pair-wise comparison, the
researchers estimated compromised solutions for the flow patterns. They applied
the case study of metropolitan Taipei to evaluate the developed traffic
assignment model, which utilized the simplified travel time function and CO
emission module. The study utilized a fixed amount of CO emissions per link and
the total emissions were summed up across all vehicles on a link (Tzeng and Chen 1993).
Rilett and Benedek (1994) and Benedek and Rilett (1998)
investigated an equitable traffic assignment with environmental cost functions.
They emphasized the impacts of CO emissions when UE and SO traffic assignments
were applied to a sample network, a simple network from Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
and a calibrated network from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The studies utilized a
simple macroscopic CO emission model used in the TRANSYT 7F software. The
emission model utilized the average speed and the link length as input
variables. The researchers showed that the traffic flows of the SO-CO (the
traffic flows that have the minimum total CO emissions) condition were roughly
equivalent to the flows of the UE and SO conditions within a small error range (Benedek and Rilett 1998; Rilett and Benedek 1994).
Sugawara and Niemeier (2002) developed an
emission-optimized traffic assignment model that used average speed CO emission
factors developed by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). The sample
network case study concluded that emission-optimized trip assignments can
reduce system-level vehicle emissions moderately when compared to the
time-dependent UE and SO conditions. The research also found that the
emission-optimized assignment is most effective when the network is under low
to moderately congested conditions, saving up to 30% of total CO emissions;
when the network is highly congested, the emission reduction is diminished to 8%.
The authors explain that under emission-optimized conditions, less traffic
volume is assigned to the freeway because emission levels are very high at
freeway free-flow speeds (Sugawara and Niemeier 2002).
Nagurney and her colleagues developed a multi-class
and multi-criteria traffic network equilibrium model with an environmental
criterion and claimed that a desired environmental quality standard can be
achieved by the proposed model through a particular weighting method. In the
study, a fixed amount of CO emission rate per traveler per link was utilized to
estimate the total CO emissions (Nagurney 2000; Nagurney and Dong 2002; Nagurney et
al. 1998).
As demonstrated, a number of researchers have focused
on traffic assignment methods that can improve the environment. However, these
research efforts have utilized simplified travel time functions and simplified
mathematical expressions to compute emission rates based on average link speeds
without regarding transient changes in a vehicle’s speed and acceleration as it
travels. These approaches have been accepted by many researchers due to their
simplicity; however, these methods are not adequate to quantify the energy and
environmental impact of route choice behavior, particularly on congested
networks, due to vehicle operational behaviors. To overcome the limitations of
current research methods of evaluating the impact of traffic assignment, this
study adopted a microscopic fuel consumption and emission models using
instantaneous speed and acceleration as explanatory variables.
STUDY CORRIDOR CHARACTERISTICS
To
identify the energy and environmental impacts of route choice behavior, morning
commute GPS data were collected in the Northern Virginia area. As shown in
Figure 1, the arterial route, VA Route 7, extends over 22.6 km (17.25 mi)
and covers 32 signalized intersections. The study section started at the
intersection of VA 28 (Sully Road) to the west and extended to the intersection
of I–66 to the east. The corridor’s entire length is divided, with a four-lane
cross-section on the eastern side and a six-lane cross-section on the western
side. The posted speed limits range from 56 km/h (35 mph) on the congested east
side to 88 km/h (55 mph) on the west side.
The highway route connects two highway sections and
two arterial sections as shown in Figure 1. The highway section extends from the
intersection of VA 28 (Sully Road) and Route 7 to the south and connects to a
section of VA 267 (Dulles Toll Road) and a section of I–495 and finally
connects to Route 7. The total distance of the highway route is 35.85 km (22.41
mi) of which 22.56 km (17.25 mi) traverses highways
(VA 267 and I–495). The arterial section of this route consists of a section of
VA 28 that extends over 9.94 km (6.21 mi) and covers four signalized
intersections and a section of Route 7, which is 3.35 km (2.10 mi) long and has
six signalized intersections.
Traffic flows along the corridors are typically
directional. During the morning peak, traffic along the study corridors
generally moves eastbound, toward downtown Washington, DC and Fairfax,
Virginia. It should be noted that the eastern portion of the study section,
which has closely-spaced signalized intersections on VA 7, is typically more
congested than other portions of the study section. The study corridors are
controlled by a centralized, computerized signal system with an optimized cycle
length of 180 seconds or 210 seconds depending on the time of day. Most of the
signal cycle time is assigned to the main route VA 7 and VA 28. The directional
distribution of signal timing varies according to the time-of-day and, during
the morning peak, more signal timing is assigned to the eastbound direction.
These signal timings are continuously optimized by the Virginia Department of
Transportation (VDOT) staff and thus represent the state-of-practice in optimal
signal control. Since the study only investigates the impact of different route
choices on vehicle fuel consumption and emission rates, a detailed description
of the traffic signal operations on the study corridor is beyond the scope of
the paper. The study utilizes GPS data collected under current traffic signal
operations on the study sections during the morning commute period.
GPS DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURES
GPS
technology is increasingly being used for transportation-related applications.
The study utilized a portable Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)-enabled GPS
receiver to gather second-by-second vehicle trajectories along the study
sections. The WAAS-enabled GPS receiver provides longitude and latitude data to
an accuracy of 2 m, altitude data to an accuracy of 3 m, and speed measurements
to an accuracy of 0.1 m/s.
The study used a portable GPS unit, GD30L,
manufactured by LAIPAC Technology, Inc. The GPS unit is designed to record
date, time, vehicle longitude, vehicle latitude, vehicle speed, vehicle
heading, and the number of tracking satellites. The system is completely
configurable, and the user can change the setup of the DIP switches to select
the recording interval from 1 second to 30 min as well as the data recording
format. The logged GPS data are recorded in a removable MultiMedia Flash Memory
Card (MMC), and the 32MB MMC easily holds 30 days of passenger car operational
data at 1-second intervals. A flash memory card reader was used to transfer the
GPS data to a PC. The device is operated as a stand-alone unit without the need
for a PC or other equipment. Once the GD30L is powered up, the GPS unit
collects the data automatically.
The GPS floating-car travel data were collected using
a test vehicle on weekdays (Monday through Friday) between March and May of
2006. The trip route (highway or arterial) was randomly selected on the day of
data collection. In order to record the aggregate characteristics of traffic
flow, the probe vehicle maintained the average speed of the traffic stream. The
travel data were recorded at a 1-second resolution and downloaded to a personal
computer. The minimum sample size (N) was calculated to satisfy the 95%
confidence limits (Z value 1.96) using the standard deviation (σ) value
and travel time error (δ) (see Equation 1). The GPS data that were
gathered exceeded the required minimum sample size. In total, 39 valid trips
were recorded, of which 21 traveled on the highway route and 18 traveled on the
arterial route, while 10 trips on the highway route and 11 trips on the
arterial route were required to satisfy the minimum sample size considering a
95% confidence limit.
(1)
It should be noted that the morning and evening
commute data were gathered. However, this study focuses on the morning commute
only. Since the GPS data included the entire morning commute travel data, the
portion of the trips that covered the study sections was extracted from the entire
trip for analysis purposes using a MATLAB code that was developed for this
purpose. The software automatically identified the first and last GPS points
within the study corridor using the coordinates of the boundary study sections.
Following the data reduction, a unique trip number was assigned to each trip.
ENERGY AND EMISSION MODELS
In
order to estimate emission and fuel consumption using the second-by-second GPS
probe vehicle data, the VT-Micro model, the Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model
(CMEM), and the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) MOBILE6 model were
utilized. The following sections briefly describe each model.
MOBILE6 Model
The
MOBILE6 model was developed by the EPA Office of Transportation and Air
Quality. MOBILE6 is the latest of the MOBILE models. MOBILE6 was developed
using recent vehicle-emission testing data collected by the EPA, CARB, and
automobile manufacturers, as well as inspection and maintenance tests conducted
in various states. A major characteristic of the MOBILE6 model is the addition
of so-called off-cycle emissions, which involve aggressive driving with various
facility-type modeling. MOBILE6 estimates emission factors based on different
roadway types (e.g., highways, arterials, locals). Emission factors can be adjusted
for different facility types and different average speeds based on vehicle
testing over a series of facility cycles. Also, MOBILE6 estimates emission
factors for the start portion and the running portion of the trip separately (Miller et al. 2000).
It should be noted that in order to model the highway
trips, the average speed of each section (a highway section: VA 267 and I-495,
and two arterial sections: VA 28 and VA 7) was individually simulated and
combined later in the analysis. Since the study only demonstrates the relative
energy and emission differences associated with motorists’ route choices, only
average speeds by facility type were utilized for the sensitivity analysis. The
study assumed identical conditions for other input variables for both routes.
Thus, default settings of vehicle model year, mileage rate, vehicle age,
vehicle-type percentage, and altitude information were used in the models
instead of the fleet characteristics of Northern Virginia. Furthermore, only
exhaust running emissions of light duty gasoline vehicles (LDGV) without start
emissions were utilized for the study.
CMEM Model
The
Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model was developed by researchers at the
University of California, Riverside. CMEM estimates light-duty vehicle (LDV) and
light-duty truck (LDT) emissions as a function of the vehicle’s operating mode.
The term “comprehensive” is utilized to reflect the ability of the model to
predict emissions for a wide variety of LDVs and LDTs in various operating
states. For the test data, both engine-out and tailpipe emissions of over 300
vehicles, including more than 30 high emitters, were measured second-by-second
over three driving cycles, including the Federal Test Procedure (FTP), US06,
and the Modal Emission Cycle (MEC). CMEM predicts second-by-second tailpipe
emissions and fuel-consumption rates for a wide range of vehicle and technology
categories. Vehicle operational variables (such as speed, acceleration, and
road grade) and model-calibrated parameters (such as cold-start coefficients
and engine-friction factor) are utilized as input data (Barth et al. 2000). In order to estimate fuel consumption and emissions,
the CMEM vehicle categories 11 and 24 were utilized. Category 11 represents
Tier 1, relatively new low-mileage vehicles, and category 24 represents Tier 1,
relatively old high-mileage vehicles.
VT Micro (ORNL) Model
While
the CMEM model was developed as a power-demand model, the VT-Micro model was
developed as a regression model from experimentation with numerous polynomial
combinations of speed and acceleration levels to construct a dual-regime model
of the form
(2)
where
Lei,j and Mei,j
represent model regression coefficients for measures of effectiveness (MOE) “e” at speed exponent “i” and acceleration exponent “j”. It should be noted that the
intercept at zero speed and zero acceleration was estimated using the positive
acceleration model and fixed in order to ensure a continuous function between
the two regression regimes. Consequently, the calibration of the model involves
estimating a total of 32 parameters for each MOE.
The model was developed utilizing a number of data
sources including data collected at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) (9
vehicles) and the EPA (101 vehicles). These data included fuel consumption and
emission rate measurements (CO, HC, and NOx) as a function of the vehicle’s
instantaneous speed and acceleration levels. CO2 emissions were
estimated using the carbon balance equation in conjunction with the fuel
consumption measurements. In this study, an average composite vehicle for the
nine ORNL vehicles was utilized. This composite vehicle included six light-duty
automobiles and three light duty trucks.
These vehicles were selected in order to produce an average vehicle that
was consistent with average vehicle sales in terms of engine displacement,
vehicle curb weight, and vehicle type at the time the data were gathered. Specifically, the average engine size was
3.3 liters, the average number of cylinders was 5.8, and the average curb
weight was 1497 kg (3300 lbs). The VT-Micro model fuel consumption and emission
rates were found to be highly accurate compared to the ORNL data with
coefficients of determination ranging from 0.92 to 0.99. Given that the model
utilizes the vehicle's instantaneous speed and acceleration levels as
independent variables, the model is easy to use for the evaluation of the
environmental impacts of operational-level projects including Intelligent
Transportation Systems (ITS). A more detailed description of the model
derivation is provided in the literature (Melosh et al. 1990; Rakha et al. 2004b).
GPS DATA ANALYSIS
The
average travel time results of the collected GPS data demonstrate that highway
trips result in travel time savings of 17% with a smaller travel time
variability compared to arterial trips (travel time standard deviation of 4.17
versus 5.08 min., respectively), as summarized in Table 1. In order to confirm
the results, t-tests were performed at a 5% significance level assuming
identical mean travel times for both cases. The t-test produced a p-value of 0.003, which indicates that
there is sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis of equal travel
times. Thus, we conclude that the travel times of the highway trips are
significantly shorter than the travel times of the arterial trips even though
the highway trips are 30% longer than the arterial trips (35.9 km versus 27.6
km). Table 1 also demonstrates that the highway trips have a significantly
higher average speed (85.42 km/h, 53.08 mi/h) than the arterial trips
(56.62 km/h, 35.18 mi/h).
The fuel consumption and emission rates estimated by
the VT-Micro (ORNL), MOBILE6, and CMEM models for the highway and arterial
trips are illustrated in Figure 2. It should be noted that the absolute values
of fuel consumption and emissions are not necessarily equal given the potential
for different model characteristics; however, the intent of this paper is not
to derive definitive emission inventories but to demonstrate the relative
energy and emission differences associated with motorists’ route choices.
Indeed, since each emission model is based on a different dataset, each model
generates different fuel consumption and emission values. It should be noted
that the CO2 and fuel consumption values of MOBILE6 are not
presented in Figure 2 because MOBILE6 only estimates HC, CO, and NOx
emissions.
The figure demonstrates that a 47% reduction in HC
emissions is achievable if motorists use the
arterial route instead of the highway route based on the VT-Micro (ORNL) model
estimates. Similarly, the output of the CMEM model demonstrates that the
arterial trips result in savings in the range of 47 to 63% in HC emissions
compared to the highway trips even though the highway trips can save 17% in
travel time. Alternatively, the MOBILE6 model results demonstrate that highway
trips reduce HC emissions by 36%.
Figure 2 also illustrates the route choice impacts on
other MOEs, including CO, NOx, CO2, and fuel consumption.
Specifically, reductions in CO emissions in the range of 52, 71, and 64% were
observed when motorists utilized the arterial based on the VT-Micro (ORNL
vehicle), CMEM 11, and CMEM 24 models, respectively. The figure also shows that
the use of the arterial route can produce reductions in NOx and CO2
emissions up to 45 and 20%, respectively. It is interesting to note that 18 to
23% of energy cost can be saved when motorists sacrifice 4.3 minutes (17%) of
travel time in this case study. However, it should be noted that similar to the
results of HC emission, the MOBILE6 model estimated that CO and NOx
emissions were increased 7 and 23% when drivers selected the arterial route.
Figure 3 illustrates the variations in HC emissions
over the individual trips with travel time and average speed data for both
highway and arterial trips. The figure illustrates that the trend of HC
emissions from VT-Micro (ORNL vehicle) models are consistent with that of the
CMEM models. It should be noted that both models are microscopic emission
models developed to capture the second-by-second operational behavior of
individual vehicles. The figure also shows that the HC emissions of the MOBILE6
model were found to be more sensitive to the average speed of each trip than to
the intricate differences in speed profiles. Because the CMEM, VT-Micro, and
MOBILE6 models were developed based on different emission sources, the absolute
values of each emission model are different. However, it should be noted that
the general trends are consistent for the micro models but inconsistent in the
case of the MOBILE6 model.
CO, NOx, and CO2 emissions and
fuel consumption rates of individual trips are also illustrated in Figure 4. As
shown in the figure, the trend of CO emissions in the VT-Micro model (ORNL
vehicle) and CMEM models along highway and arterial trips is analogous to that
of HC emissions. In case of CO emissions, highway trip 12 (24.97 min., 86.03
km/hr) produces significantly higher CO emission (3.14 times) compared to
highway trip 13 (24.98 min., 86.05 km/hr) with CMEM 24 model, demonstrating
that CO emissions are more sensitive to engine loads than other air pollutants.
It should be noted that highway trip 12 produced 50 high engine load
occurrences that each produced emissions of CO in excess of 5 g/s while highway
trip 13 had only 8 instances of such cases.
It should also be noted that the CO and NOX
emissions of the MOBILE6 model for arterial trips were found to be less
sensitive to differences across the drive cycles, thus demonstrating that the
MOBILE6 model cannot reflect the instantaneous changes in speed profiles.
Additionally, note that the trends of CO2 and fuel consumption are
identical for both highway and arterial trips.
Correlation coefficients among travel time, average
speed, fuel consumption, and emissions of individual trips are shown in Table
2. The table shows that it is difficult to find relationships between travel
time (or average speed) and the estimated emissions and fuel consumption rates
produced by the VT‑Micro (ORNL) and CMEM models considering the
non-linear behavior of vehicle emissions, demonstrating that MOEs produced by
microscopic emission models are closely related to instantaneous vehicle
operations as opposed to aggregate trip characteristics. However, high
correlation coefficients are observed between travel time and HC and NOX
emissions of MOBILE6 in Table 2. Also, the emissions and fuel consumption rates
of the VT-Micro (ORNL vehicle) model are highly correlated with the results of
the CMEM model due to the microscopic nature of the models.
Under congested conditions, motorists tend to choose
the route with the minimum travel cost (e.g., travel time). Between each origin
and destination, UE is reached when no driver can unilaterally achieve a
reduction in time or cost by changing his/her route of travel; in other words,
the travel times for all routes are equal. Emissions and fuel consumption rates
produced by the VT-Micro (ORNL vehicle), CMEM, and MOBILE6 models are presented
in Figure 5 when the travel times of the highway trip (28.8 min) and the
arterial trip (28.8 min) are identical. It may not be appropriate to claim
that the UE condition is reached even under these conditions because the two
trips were recorded on two different days. Figure 5 illustrates that even when
the travel times are identical, motorists can save significant emission and
fuel consumption rates when the arterial route is selected. Specifically, the
VT-Micro model estimates reductions in the range of 44%, 49%, 25% and 18% for
HC, CO, NOX, and CO2 emissions, respectively.
Furthermore, a driver can save up to 19% in fuel costs by using the arterial
route.
Second-by-second emissions and fuel consumption of
highway and arterial trips under UE conditions are illustrated in Figure 6. The
figure also includes the speed profiles of the highway and arterial trips,
which involve several full and partial stops in addition to high-speed travel
(speeds of about 100 km/h or 62 mph for the arterial trip and 120 km/h or 75 mph
for the highway trip). The average speeds of the highway and arterial trips
were 74 km/h (46 mph) and 57 km/h (35 mph), respectively. Figure 6
illustrates the variations in the instantaneous vehicle emissions and fuel
consumption rates as estimated by the VT-Micro (ORNL vehicle) and CMEM 24 models
as the vehicle traveled along the highway and arterial routes. The
instantaneous emissions show the numerous peaks and valleys of the vehicle
emissions, demonstrating that the MOEs are sensitive to changes in a vehicle’s
speed and acceleration profile. Also, it is noted that some peaks of HC and CO
emissions represent a significant amount of total emissions. For example, a few
peaks of CO emissions are several thousand times greater than those of other
instantaneous emission rates.
Table 3 shows that 1% (17 seconds of 1,729 seconds) of
the highway trip is responsible for 16%, 19%, 4%, 3%, and 4% of the total HC,
CO, NOX, CO2 emissions, and fuel consumption rates,
respectively, along the drive cycle shown in Figure 6 when the MOEs are
estimated by the VT‑Micro (ORNL) model. The CMEM 24 model shows similar
results: 20%, 38%, 30%, 3%, and 5% of total HC, CO, NOX, CO2
emissions, and fuel consumption rates, respectively, are produced by the 1%
portion of the trip. The results of the CMEM 24 model shows that almost 100% of
HC and NOX emissions are emitted by 10% (173 seconds of 1,729
seconds) of the arterial trip, implying that a small fraction of the trip is
responsible for a significant amount of the total emissions while the results
of the VT-Micro show smaller contributions. Note that, in general, CO2
emission and fuel consumption rates are impacted less than other MOEs; up to 25
and 28% of total CO2 emissions and fuel consumption rates are caused
by 10% of the trip profile. These small portions of a trip are caused by high
engine-load conditions. Consequently, the study demonstrates that a reduction
of high-emitting driving behavior can significantly improve air quality.
SIMULATION RESULTS
In
order to examine the system-wide impacts of traffic assignment on air quality
and energy, the study utilized the INTEGRATION microscopic traffic assignment
and simulation software to conduct further analyses. The INTEGRATION software
utilizes VT-Micro fuel consumption and emission models with the ORNL vehicle
type and a detailed description of the energy and emission modules within the
INTEGRATION model is provided in the literature (Rakha and Ahn 2004).
The sample network consists of two links and two
nodes, as illustrated in Figure 7. The O-D (origin-destination) demand is 5,000
vehicles per hour (veh/hr), and there are two routes available. The highway
route is 5 km (3.1 mi) long with three lanes for the first 4 km (2.5 mi) and
two lanes for the remaining 1 km (0.6 mi). It has a free-flow speed of 100
km/hr (62.5 mph) and a capacity of 1,800 veh/hr/lane. The jam density of
the highway route is set to 100 veh/km, and the speed-at-capacity is coded
at 90 km/h (56.3 mph). The arterial route is a shorter two-lane, 4-km (2.5‑mi)
corridor that has three signalized intersections located every 1 km
(0.6 mi), as illustrated in Figure 7. The arterial route has a lower
free-flow speed of 75 km/hr (47 mph) with a 67 km/h (42 mph) speed-at-capacity
and an identical jam density and lane capacity as those for the highway route. Also,
it should be noted that three signals have a 60-second cycle length with a 0.67
g/C ratio (effective green time to cycle length ratio), and they are partially
coordinated.
Eleven traffic assignment scenarios were utilized in
this case study. Figure 8 shows the traffic assignment scenarios simulated
using the INTEGRATION software. The vehicles assigned to the arterial route
were increased from 500 vehicles (scenario 2) to 4,500 vehicles (scenario 10) in
increments of 500 vehicles; for example, scenario 5 shows that 2,000 vehicles
were assigned to the arterial route and 3,000 vehicles were assigned to the
highway route. Scenarios 1 and 11 were excluded from the rule; in other words, 100
vehicles and 4,900 vehicles were assigned to the arterial route and the highway
route, respectively, in scenario 1 and vice versa for scenario 11. Each simulation
was loaded for 30 minutes and continued simulation for 90 minutes in
order to clear all loaded vehicles. Therefore, 2,500 vehicles were utilized for
this analysis.
The simulation results show that the SO condition is
attained in scenario 5, as illustrated in Figure 8, which has the smallest total
travel time of the entire network. Figure 8 also shows the UE condition in
scenario 4, which has the same average travel time for the two routes. It
should be noted that the total travel times (or total delay) are significantly
increased as 4,000 veh/hr or more are assigned to the arterial route.
The emissions- and/or fuel-consumption-optimized
traffic assignments are illustrated in Figure 9. Scenario 8 is the HC and CO
emission-optimized traffic assignment while scenario 5, which is the SO condition
based on travel time, also produces the minimum CO2 emission and
fuel consumption rates. These results are inconsistent with the results of
Rilett and Benedek (1994), in which the traffic flows of the CO-optimized
assignment condition were roughly equivalent to the flows of the UE and SO
conditions within a small error range. Also, scenario 11, which assigns most of
the vehicles to the arterial route and has the greatest total delay among all
scenarios (8.4 times more delay than SO condition), produces the least NOX
emissions. It is concluded that because more NOX emissions are
produced under stoichiometric air/fuel ratio conditions, low-speed congested
traffic conditions, which are typically under fuel-rich or fuel-lean conditions,
do not increase NOX emissions. It is interesting to note that HC and
CO emissions, NOX emissions, CO2 emissions, and fuel
consumption rates have different emission- and/or energy-optimized assignments,
which are scenarios 8, 11, and 5, respectively. It should be noted that each
emission group has different characteristics; HC and CO emissions are extremely
sensitive to vehicle acceleration behaviors, and the highest emissions are
produced under a fuel-rich condition while more NOX emissions are
generated under a stoichiometric ratio condition. Fuel consumption and CO2
emissions are also sensitive to acceleration behaviors but not as sensitive as
HC and CO emissions.
Figure 10 illustrates emission- and energy-optimized traffic assignments for high-emitting (HE4) and low-emitting (LDV3) vehicles as well as the ORNL vehicles. High emitters are motor vehicles that produce higher emissions than the average-emitting vehicle under normal driving conditions. It is known that a small fraction of high emitters contributes significantly to total mobile source emissions. Detailed description of high-emitting (HE4) and low-emitting (LDV3) vehicles is provided in the literature