Project. Modeling of vehicle crash causes Completed

Principal investigator: Dr. Nicholas J. Garber, University of Virginia, 804-924-6366, njg@virginia.edu

External contact. Catherine McGhee, VTRC, 530 Edgemont Rd., Charlottesville, VA 22903, 804-293-1973

Project objective. To develop mathematical relationships that describe the combined influence of traffic speed and road geometric characteristics on crash occurrence.

Project abstract. The use of real-time data for congestion forecasting and management is expected to significantly increase in the next few years, particularly with the establishment of Traffic Management Centers in many states. Traffic engineers in these Traffic Management Centers will probably use outputs from forecasting systems to develop and implement strategies that will alleviate the impact of the forecasted congestion. Unfortunately, most of the strategies being researched are based solely in the reduction of volume to an acceptable level of service, without any consideration given to the impact of these strategies on the frequency of crashes. It is hypothesized that the rate at which crashes occur depends on a complex interaction of the traffic and geometric characteristics at the segment of highway being considered. Therefore, strategies to change these characteristics without any consideration of the resultant impact on crash frequency may result in unsafe conditions. This project will develop models that can be used in combination with real time predicting models to develop traffic management strategies that will not result in increased crash rates.

Tasks. 1) Develop models for each road type. 2) Prepare report documenting the methodology to develop models.

Milestones. The project will be completed by June 30, 2002.

Student involvement. Three full-effort GRAs will be involved throughout the project.

Budget.   $360,000

Relationship to other research projects. No immediate relationship.

Technology transfer. Publication in professional journals.

Potential benefits. This effort could lay the foundations for fresh approaches to infrastructure design and traffic management leading to significant increases in safety.

TRB keywords: ITS, safety