Project. Incident duration forecasting(extension of FY2000 "FleetForward traffic forecasting") Completed

Principal Investigator.  Dr. Brian L. Smith, University of Virginia, 804-243-8406, bls2z@virginia.edu 

External contact. Stephany Hanshaw, VDOT, Hampton Roads Smart Traffic Center, Virginia Beach, VA. 757.424.9907. (Formerly Rebecca Brewster, ATA Foundation, 1280 W. Peachtree St., Suite 300, Atlanta, GA 30309, 404-873-1201) 

Project objective. To develop a traffic forecasting capability for incident duration. 

Project abstract. The purpose of this project is to develop forecasting models to predict the impact of incident on traffic flow. The initial phase of this effort focused on the application of these models in motor carriier operations in partnership with the American Trucking Association Foundation (ATAF). This phase is complete and a final report has been delivered to ATAF. Building from this foundation, the current phase of the project focuses on predicting the duration of incidents given key descriptive information. 

Tasks. 1) Collect incident data 2) Develop requirements for incident duration models, 3) Develop alternative models, 4) Evaluate models. Milestones. This project will be completed by December 31, 2001. 

Student involvement. 1 GRA 

Budget  $90,000

Relationship to other research projects. Supports incident/traffic management research efforts. Technology transfer. Transmittal of report to American Trucking Association and journal articles. Potential benefits. Forecasted incident duration can greatly improve effectiveness of incident management. 

TRB keywords. Forecasting, incident management, ITS