RESEARCH PLAN

Task 1. Sub-regional impacts of congestion

PI: Dr. Roger Stough

There are various studies, for example those by the Texas Transportation Institute, of the impact of congestion on the whole National Capital Region, yet it is at the sub-regional level that economic, land use and transportation decision-making can most usefully adapt to the challenges of congestion. For example, the current debate over "rail to Dulles" hinges in large measure on projected congestion in the sub-regional Dulles corridor. To take another example, current and planned transportation improvements along the Route 1 corridor are a response to congestion in that sub-region.

We propose a study that will identify relevant sub-regions of the National Capital Region, and will then analyze current and projected congestion patterns in those sub-regions. The study will rely heavily on forecasts of commercial and residential development in the sub-regions. We realize that the Washington Area Council of Governments is conducting similar studies, but we believe that a study by an independent university research center can offer insight and perspectives that may be missed in the Council of Government's politically constrained studies.

With such realistic forecasts in hand, we will review possible ITS technologies and other measures that could relieve congestion. We will evaluate these technologies and measures with reference to their contribution to improved economic performance in the sub-region.

Subtask 1. Identify National Capital Region sub-regions, with particular reference to the inter-relationships between transportation patterns and economic development. Some sub-regions may have the characteristics of a transportation corridor. Rank sub-regions according to their economic significance (contribution, employment and wealth creation).

Deliverable: paper and accompanying table
Time: 6 months

Subtask 2. Identify, review and assess appropriate forecasting models, with particular reference to securing realistic forecasts of economic development and population growth over a five- to -ten-year period.

Deliverable: paper
Time: 6 months

Subtask 3. Carry out growth forecasts for sub-regions. Relate these forecasts to available transportation capacity, and project changes in congestion levels.

Deliverable: functioning model with appropriate conclusions
Time: 18 month

Subtask 4. Present options for ITS technologies as possible ways to mitigate congestion.

Deliverable: paper
Time: 6 months

Task 2. Developing an ITS industry in the National Capital Region.

PI: Dr. Roger Stough

The National Capital Region has an immense pool of professional expertise and corporate investment in the production of information technologies, but at present only a handful of firms, mostly small, are actively involved in providing ITS goods and services.

We propose investigating the steps or measures that could be taken to encourage the development of the ITS sub-sector. Our study would involve a range of regional development issues, including the role of entrepreneurship, education of the workforce, region marketing, development strategy and producer access to markets.

The rationale for the project is that a proliferation of ITS providers would likely lead to increased attention in the region to ITS solutions for transportation problems, in particular, improved regional coordination of traffic management by means of ITS technologies.

Subtask 1. Review the literature on what are the factors contributing to development of industry sectors in a region. This review will pay particular attention to the cultivation of entrepreneurship, since a significant portion of ITS providers are entrepreneurs. It will also examine trends in industry consolidation and roll up efforts that typify industries that are beginning to mature.Deliverable: paper
Time: 12 monthsSubtask 2. Analyze the character of ITS providers, including firm size, firm governance, other sectors in which the firm is involved, and growth rates of firms. Relate these findings to those of Subtask 1.

Deliverable: paper
Time: 12 months

Subtask 3. Develop policy options for encouraging the development of ITS intensive start up firms, based on the findings of Subtasks 1 and 2.

Deliverable: paper
Time: 6 months

Subtask 4. Evaluate these policy options and make recommendations to appropriate levels of government and NGOs.

Deliverable: paper
Time: 6 months

Task 3. ITS and the Planning Process

PI: Drs. Roger Stough and Jonathan Gifford

This project will study the interrelationship between the transportation planning process and the use of intelligent transportation systems. On the one hand, it will explore how the planning process can facilitate the deployment of appropriate transportation technologies, and, on the other hand, it will consider how ITS technologies can support transportation planning with, for example, continually improving real-time traffic information and continually improving transportation databases. In addition, ITS can facilitate planning by offering new options for addressing transportation needs.

The National Capital Region faces increasingly complex planning challenges. A range of homeland security concerns must be accommodated. Citizen involvement in issues ranging from local traffic calming to region-wide suburban sprawl and highway mega-project construction, beg for a more agile and adaptable planning process. The creation of the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority has complicated an already complex jurisdictional arrangement. And, on top of all of this is intense public concern about ever increasing traffic congestion.

Agencies within the National Capital Region involved in transportation planning and transportation operations are increasingly focusing on transportation mobility. The overriding goal of mobility is the comprehensive management of roadway congestion. Towards this end, a three-fold approach to congestion management can be defined: (1) build capacity, (2) reduce demand, and (3) manage capacity. The focus of this project effort is on capacity management.

ITS is not a silver bullet that can immediately solve the problems of capacity management. But it does offer innovative tools for addressing these issues. As one example of ITS as a planning tool, George Mason University has completed a calibration of the Integration traffic model for use on I-66 to assist VDOT in evaluating possible traffic management changes on that corridor. A parallel effort is now underway at George Mason to calibrate Integration for the Route 1 corridor in Northern Virginia.

ITS tools can also assist planners in achieving their objectives through improving transportation operations. For example, ITS technologies are essential in plans for introducing HOT lanes in Northern Virginia, and in implementing an imaginative public-private partnership to collect and disseminate real-time traffic information in Northern Virginia. Our proposed research project will examine ways in which ITS, both as a planning tool, and as a traffic management tool, can support the planning process in the Washington D.C. metropolitan area.

Of particular interest is the current upgrading of the full range of traffic management technologies along the Route 1 corridor in the National Capital Region. Transportation challenges include heavy and rapidly growing development and population, plus complex spill-over traffic patterns between Interstate 95 and U.S. Route 1.

A corridor approach to capacity management should be conducted and documented in a Northern Virginia Route 1 High Level Transportation Operations Plan (Route1TOP). The Route1TOP would define operational strategies across all areas. Priority will be given specifically in four functional areas: (1) incident management, (2) security, (3) traveler information, and (4) corridor operations. Documentation of Route1TOP will be imperative to the mainstreaming of planning for Operations.

It is intended that the current study effort will build logically on the planning activities performed over the past number of years, including the development and adoption of Regional Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) Architectures. The ITS Architectures have, in essence, established the operational foundation for a Route1TOP.

In conjunction with this Route 1 Transportation Operations Plan, we propose to conduct a careful analysis of the institutional challenges involved in implementing the plan. This will both serve as an important case study and afford valuable advice to transportation officials currently planning for technology upgrades along this corridor.

Subtask 1. Conduct survey of research and practice of interdependencies between transportation technologies and transportation planning.

Deliverable: Interpretive essay
Time: 9 months

Subtask 2. Use three or four metropolitan areas appropriate for comparative analysis on the relationships between transportation technologies and transportation plans.

Deliverable: briefing memo
Time: 9 months. This work will begin before completion of Subtask 1.

Subtask 3. Select an appropriate corridor within the National Capital Region -- tentatively the Route 1 corridor -- and analyze the institutional challenges of developing and deploying a set of ITS technologies along this corridor.

Deliverable: analytic paper
Time: 12 months. This work will commence after completion of Subtask 2. Subtask 4. Prepare final report recommending strategies for incorporating transportation technologies into transportation plans. This report will consolidate the more general findings of Subtasks 1 and 2 and the specific Transportation Operations Plan of Subtasks 3 and 4.Deliverable: report
Time: 6 months

Task 4. Telecommunications and ITS infrastructure security

PI: Dr. Laurie Schintler

George Mason's Transportation Policy, Operations and Logistics Research Center has already established itself as a key player in homeland security research through its involvement in George Mason's Critical Infrastructure Protection Project. Dr. Laurie Schintler and scholar Raj Kulkarni have testified to the White House Critical Infrastructure Task Force, and Dr. Sean Gorman, a post doctoral fellow, has received international acclaim for work on describing potential vulnerabilities in the nation's information technology infrastructure.

We propose to continue work in this field, with particular attention to intelligent transportation systems that are directly relevant to homeland security, such as those designed to facilitate mass evacuations from urban centers, and those designed to survey key installations. Because this is a rapidly evolving field, it is difficult to specify an exact research agenda, but, in general, we would continue our work in the identification of critical information infrastructure with particular reference and focus on transportation facilities.

Subtask 1. Describe the level of dependence of various critical ITS technologies on telecommunications hubs and networks, taking both a functional and regional approach.

Deliverable: paper
Time: 9 months

Subtask 2.

Clarify the role of various ITS technologies in homeland security plans and operations, with particular emphasis on post-terrorist attack evacuation and on preventive surveillance of critical transportation infrastructure.

Deliverable: paper
Time: 9 months

Subtask 3. Consistent with appropriate security guidelines, identify and rank in importance telecom hubs and networks in support of critical ITS deployments nationwide.

Deliverable: briefing memo
Time: 9 months

Subtask 4. Prepare final report.

Deliverable: report
Time: 9 months

Task 5. Homeland security applications of CapWIN

PI: Roger Stough

The Transportation Center is now embarked on its third year of work on CapWIN (Capital Area Wireless Integrated Network). The project is moving forward steadily, if not at the rate initially envisioned, and it is reasonable to assume that it will still be a priority project at the time this FY03 money becomes available.

Already, the Center has made major contributions in untangling the institutional complexities associated with CapWIN, including, notably, designing and helping initiate the implementation of an interstate compact that will serve as the governance structure for CapWIN and its more than one hundred government partners. We propose to examine how CapWIN could be utilized for specific security-related concerns, for examine, securing access to databases of information about terrorists, and securing connections to real-time surveillance systems aimed specifically at possible terrorist activity.

Subtask 1. CapWIN is currently at a crossroads, and the federal agencies that have been supporting it are expecting the program to move towards self-sufficiency. This requires a careful analysis of CapWIN's budgetary needs in the years to come, and possible sources of financing. In subtask 1 we will construct a hypothetical multi-year budget, considering various scenarios.

Deliverable: budget statement
Time: 6 months

Subtask 2. This is a sister project to subtask 1. We will develop options for financing CapWIN. Possibilities include fee-for-service, pro rated assessments of participating jurisdictions, and local contributions to match continued federal support.

Deliverable: finance proposal
Time: 9 months

Subtask 3. At present the framework of an interstate compact has been established for the governance of CapWIN. As CapWIN evolves, it will be necessary to adapt this framework to changing circumstances. In subtask 3 we will develop proposals for institutional arrangements to effect such adaptations.

Deliverable: planning points
Time: 9 months

Subtask 4. While CapWIN has received considerable favorable commentary in the press and from public officials, thus far no formal evaluation has been carried out. In subtask 4 we will develop and carry out an evaluation of CapWIN's effectiveness, in terms of both its technical performance and its institutional arrangements.

Deliverable: evaluation paper
Time: 12 months

Task 6. Pricing ITS

PI: Dr. Kenneth Button The pricing of ITS presents both theoretical and practical problems of real importance. At a theoretical level, there is the question of which elements of ITS are "public" goods and therefore should be supported through taxes, and which elements are "private" and can therefore be supported by user fees or else provided by for-profit private firms. At the practical level, there are important pricing issues regarding, for example, HOT lanes. There are also important pricing issues regarding real-time traffic information, including the appropriate relationship between for-profit vendors and public transportation authorities in setting the terms of sale.

We propose to do a two-track research project which will explore both the theoretical and the applied aspects of ITS pricing. The applied element of the research will address metropolitan area Washington, D.C., where both HOT lanes and vendor-supplied traffic information are under active development and similar interventions and new construction alternatives for the Virginia and Maryland parts of the I-95 corridor.

Subtask 1. Develop theoretical framework for study, with special reference to the question of public vs. private goods.

Deliverable: paper
Time: 9 months

Subtask 2. Identify all potential ITS pricing issues in Northern Virginia, and select two or three for intensive analysis.

Deliverable: briefing memo
Time: 3 months

Subtask 3. Conduct benefit-cost analysis of pricing in these cases, giving full consideration to positive and negative externalities involved.

Deliverable: cost-benefit analysis
Time: 12 months

Subtask 4. Prepare final report integrating theoretical framework with case study findings.

Deliverable: report
Time: 12 months

Transportation Policy, Operations and Logistics Center
School of Public Policy — George Mason University — Fairfax, Virginia